What winter here does to a heat pump
Your furnace or heat pump runs eight months a year here, October through May, and that's the decision that matters most. A heat pump heats and cools from one system, and it costs more up front to rule it out without a look. But a standard heat pump starts losing ground below 40°F, and it often needs backup heat below about 35°F. The average overnight low here in December, January and February is 24°F. That's below both marks. It isn't a rare cold snap doing that, it's the ordinary winter night.
About 115 nights a year here drop to freezing or below, roughly half the nights across the whole heating season. Every one of those nights falls below the point where a standard heat pump's output starts to fall short of its rating. So for about half the season, a standard heat pump is working below its rated capacity, not above it. The furnace doesn't have that problem. It burns gas and makes its full heat regardless of how cold it is outside.
This doesn't rule out a heat pump. It rules out a standard one, or at least means you shouldn't expect it to carry the house alone on the coldest nights. A cold-climate heat pump is built for this. To earn that label a unit has to still make more heat than electricity it uses at 5°F, and hold onto most of its 47°F capacity at that temperature. That's a different machine than the federal-minimum unit priced in the running-cost numbers above. Only 2 nights a year here reach 0°F, so even a cold-climate heat pump is rarely asked to do its hardest work.











