Can a heat pump keep up here
Your winter low here averages 22°F, and that matters because a standard heat pump starts losing ground before it gets that cold. Below 40°F it puts out less heat than its rating says. Below about 35°F it usually needs backup heat to make up the difference. Both marks sit above your average low, and every one of the 135 nights a year that hit freezing or below is colder than both.
That doesn't rule out a heat pump. It means the ordinary kind needs help on more than half the nights of your 8-month heating season. If you go this route, look for the ENERGY STAR Cold Climate label. To earn it, a heat pump has to keep making 1.75 units of heat per unit of electricity at 5°F and hold onto 70 percent of its warm-weather capacity at that temperature, checked by outside testing, not the manufacturer's word. That is a different machine than the federal minimum one priced in the cost band above.
A two-winter study of cold-climate heat pumps in real homes backs this up. Between 0°F and 35°F, backup heat only covered a small share of the load. Running on backup alone was rare even above 0°F. Lawrence County only sees about 5 nights a year that cold, a small slice of the 135 freezing nights. So the nights that would actually stress a cold-climate heat pump are the exception here, not the rule.











