What winter here does to a heat pump
Your furnace, whatever you end up with, is going to run seven months a year here, October through April. That is the longer of your two seasons by a wide margin, cooling only takes June through August. So this decision is mostly a heating decision.
A standard heat pump starts losing ground below 40°F and often needs backup heat below about 35°F. The average overnight low here in December, January and February is 24°F. That is not an occasional dip below those marks, it is the season sitting below both of them. About 110 nights a year here hit freezing or below, roughly half the nights across the whole heating season, and every one of those nights is cold enough to pull a standard heat pump below both marks.
That does not mean the heat pump stops working. It means it leans on backup heat, usually electric resistance, on a lot of the coldest nights of your year. A field test of cold-climate heat pumps found backup heat carried only a small share of the load between 0°F and 35°F, and running on backup alone was rare even above 0°F. Lancaster County sees about one night a year that cold, so the deep cold isn't the issue here. The issue is the 110 nights at or below freezing, which is where a standard heat pump's output and efficiency are already down from their rating.
If you want a heat pump to carry your house through a winter like this one without leaning hard on backup heat, look for the ENERGY STAR Cold Climate listing. That designation requires at least 1.75 units of heat per unit of electricity at 5°F, verified by outside testing, which is a different machine than one built to the federal minimum.











