What the cold actually does here
Winters in Wayne County run long. The heat is on nine months a year, September through May, and the overnight low averages 17°F in December, January and February. That's the number that matters more than the cost chart above, because a heat pump's efficiency isn't fixed. It drops as the temperature drops.
A standard heat pump starts putting out less than its rated heat once it's below 40°F outside. Below about 35°F it often needs backup heat to make up the difference. Here, the average winter night is 17°F, below both marks. And it's not a few bad nights a year. About 160 nights a year in Wayne County fall at or below freezing, more than half of all the nights the heat is running. On every one of those nights, a standard heat pump is working below both the 40°F and 35°F marks.
That doesn't mean a heat pump can't heat your house. It means the running cost printed above, $2.37 per 100,000 Btu, is the best case. It's figured off the heat pump's seasonal rating with nothing added for backup heat, and backup heat here is electric resistance, the most expensive way to make heat there is. The colder your street gets, the more that $2.37 understates what you'd actually pay.
There's a real difference between a standard heat pump and a cold climate one here. A unit certified ENERGY STAR Cold Climate has to prove, under third party testing, that it still makes at least 1.75 units of heat per unit of electricity at 5°F, and keeps at least 70 percent of its 47°F capacity at that temperature. A field test of prototype cold climate heat pumps in occupied homes found backup heat covered only a small share of the heat needed between 0°F and 35°F, and the units almost never ran on backup alone unless it was below 0°F. Wayne County sees that only about 9 nights a year. For a county this cold, the difference between a standard heat pump and a cold climate one isn't a feature, it's the difference between a machine that struggles on an ordinary January night and one built for it.











