What the cold here does to a heat pump
Winter is the real question here, more than running cost. The overnight low averages 19°F across December, January and February. A standard heat pump starts falling short of its rated heat output below 40°F, and below about 35°F it's usually leaning on backup heat. At 19°F, your average winter night is past both marks, not close to them.
This isn't about a few bad nights. About 140 nights a year here drop to freezing or below, more than half the nights across the eight months your heat runs. Those are the nights a standard heat pump is working hardest and putting out the least. Nights at 0°F or below only come about 4 times a year, a small share of the cold nights. So the real issue isn't the rare deep freeze. It's the long run of ordinary nights in the 20s and 30s, because a standard heat pump is already struggling by then.
A furnace doesn't have this problem, which is why it holds up as strong, steady heat in hard cold. If you do go with a heat pump here, the model matters more than the brand. One built to ENERGY STAR's Cold Climate spec has to make at least 1.75 units of heat per unit of electricity at 5°F and hold on to at least 70 percent of its 47°F capacity at that temperature, tested by a third party. That's the gap a standard heat pump can't close. In a two winter field test of these cold-climate models in occupied homes, backup heat covered only a small share of the load even between 0°F and 35°F, and running on backup alone was rare above 0°F.











