What winter here does to a heat pump
Your furnace question here is really a cold question. The average overnight low across December, January and February is 22°F, and that sits below both marks that matter for a standard heat pump. Below 40°F its output falls short of what it's rated for. Below about 35°F it usually needs backup heat to keep up. At 22°F average, you're past both marks most winter nights, not just on the occasional cold snap.
About 125 nights a year here drop to freezing or below, roughly half the nights across the eight months the heat runs. Every one of those nights is cold enough to put a standard heat pump into that same bind, short on output, leaning on backup. Only about 2 nights a year reach 0°F, so the deep cold is rare. The ordinary cold isn't.
A heat pump built to carry the ENERGY STAR Cold Climate label is tested to hold at least 70 percent of its 47°F heating capacity down at 5°F, and to still make 1.75 units of heat per unit of electricity at that temperature. That's a different machine than the federal-minimum unit priced in the running-cost numbers above. A field test of prototype cold-climate heat pumps over two winters found backup heat carried only a small share of the load between 0°F and 35°F, and the units rarely ran on backup alone even above 0°F. The $2.37 figure above doesn't assume a unit built to that standard, and it adds nothing for backup heat, so a standard heat pump here will likely cost more to run than that number shows on the coldest nights.











